Bitcoin.
Scarcity, sovereignty, issuance, market cycles, and the monetary network as a long duration asset.
Thesis library · Working papers
Ideas worth developing in public.
Long form thinking on where value is forming, how technology changes business, and how capital moves across markets, currencies, and borders.
Start with the framework
Four published · two in development
Published
Current papers.
Living documents. Each paper becomes more precise as the evidence and the thesis develop.012026 edition
Investment philosophy
Investment framework.
Growth, scarcity, infrastructure, distribution, valuation, Bitcoin, currencies, and the discipline required to let a long duration thesis compound.
Read the paper →02New
AI and software
Mini models are the future.
Why specialized, low compute AI systems may capture the majority of business value by turning narrow workflows into reliable, inexpensive products.
Read the paper →03New
International finance
International finance for expats 101.
The international money stack: accessible cash, foreign liquidity, purposeful entities, and sovereign money built for resilience across borders.
Read the paper →04New
AI infrastructure
AI infrastructure bottlenecks.
A map of chips, memory, power, buildings, compute, routing, tokens, and agents, with a framework for finding where scarcity may concentrate economic value.
Read the paper →Research agenda
Papers in development.
The questions shaping the next body of work.- 01Framework
- 02Mini models
- 03International finance
- 04AI infrastructure
- 05Bitcoin
- 06Currency
Currency arbitrage.
Matching assets to local spending, earning local carry, and respecting the risks behind rate differentials.
Working method
Theses, not predictions.
Free educational resources. No earnings or investment guarantees.- 01
Build the framework
A useful structure first, so the argument has somewhere to live.
- 02
Expose the assumptions
Every claim states what has to be true for it to hold.
- 03
Revise on contact
When reality disagrees, the paper changes. That is the point.